Are We Wired for Disaster?

On a sweltering July afternoon in 2019, in the heart of New York City, some 72,000 people themselves plunged into darkness. Broadway shows were canceled, subway trains ground to a halt, and thousands were trapped in elevators. This blackout, caused by a faulty relay protection system, was a stark reminder of how fragile our power infrastructure can be. Luckily, this was just a localized event, but what if it wasn’t?

Imagine the lights suddenly go out—not just in your home, but across entire cities, states, or even countries. Planes experience electronic navigation issues, traffic lights don’t work, hospitals lose power, and clean water supply stops. This is not the plot of a dystopian novel; it's a real-life scenario that power grid experts are losing sleep over.

Like an old smartphone struggling to run the latest apps, our power grid infrastructure is straining to meet the demands of our society. The American Society of Civil Engineers' 2021 Infrastructure Report Card gave the energy sector a concerning C- grade, indicating significant room for improvement. One does not have to look far to find information on the challenges we are facing:

https://infrastructurereportcard.org

https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-21-105403.pdf

https://www.eenews.net/articles/tensions-at-home-and-abroad-pose-growing-threat-to-us-grid/

How vulnerable are we to a large-scale blackout?  What needs to fail for this event to happen?  And most importantly, what can be done to prevent it?

This potential crisis is all reliant on the health and strength of our transformers—the unsung heroes of our power system. These structures convert high-voltage electricity from power plants into the lower voltages we use in our homes, businesses and our daily lives. 

The threats to these transformers and grid components are already happening today. It’s just going to take a smart enough, or big enough event to put us all in danger.

Really?  What things could make this happen for real?

1. Cyber-attacks: Once the stuff of science fiction, these attacks have become a real and present danger. A sophisticated, coordinated cyber-attack could target multiple substations or control systems simultaneously. https://www.reuters.com/technology/cybersecurity/us-electric-grid-growing-more-vulnerable-cyberattacks-regulator-says-2024-04-04/

2. Severe Weather: We all know, there is no controlling Mother Nature. With weather patterns changing, we have seen more extreme hurricanes, ice storms, and heat waves affecting larger geographical areas. These could impact multiple transformers at the same time.

Every summer we read how the power goes out and sweltering temperatures sends people to the ER for heat related illnesses. Many don’t make it to the ER.  The winter season brings its own violent storms leaving millions freezing in the dark.  These common events, expose how severe weather can overwhelm our power systems and demonstrate how unprepared our grid is. The older our grid gets, the larger the toll it will take.

3. Sabotage: The nation's power grid faces mounting threats. According to a recent alert from the organization overseeing U.S. electrical infrastructure reliability, they are seeing a troubling increase in extremist activities and in sophisticated digital assaults against essential systems, likely orchestrated by foreign governments.

https://www.eenews.net/articles/tensions-at-home-and-abroad-pose-growing-threat-to-us-grid/

“The current geopolitical situation has significant ramifications for the North American grid,” Manny Cancel, senior vice president at NERC, told reporters Thursday, and that’s contributed to “a dramatic increase in malicious activity.”

4. Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP): An EMP is a sudden burst of electromagnetic energy. It can disrupt or damage electronic devices and electrical systems. Whether from Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) nuclear EMP’s, or geomagnetic disturbances, these events could fry multiple transformers immediately and simultaneously.   https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/geomagnetic-storms

 https://science.nasa.gov/science-research/heliophysics/how-nasa-tracked-the-most-intense-solar-storm-in-decades/ CMEs are considered the most dangerous because there is no way we can stop one from happening. Even if the entire world were at peace, we could still lose the grid.

5. Age: This may be the most unpredictable and dangerous threat of all. Many components of the U.S. power grid are decades old, silently approaching or exceeding their designed lifespans.  It's like driving a car with 200,000 miles on the odometer – it might run fine today, but any day, its caput forever.

"The U.S. electric grid is truly at a pivotal point," says Dr. Massoud Amin, Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering at the University of Minnesota and often referred to as the "father of the smart grid." "We're dealing with an aging infrastructure designed for a different era, trying to meet the demands of a digital society. It's like running modern software on an outdated computer – eventually, something's got to give."

Ok, can’t we just replace these transformers?

Should one of these bad boys stop working or get destroyed, it’s not an easy fix.

• Transformers, weigh up to 400 tons and cost up to 7.5 million dollars.
• It takes up to 18 months to manufacture a single large transformer.
• Transporting them requires specialized equipment and careful planning.
• They are not made in this country.
• There are limited spares available, leaving us vulnerable to widespread outages if multiple transformers fail across the globe. Since they are not made in the USA, we probably won’t be first on the priority list.

Ok great, thanks for the good news.  But how bad could it be if several transformers failed? We’ve all been through power outages.

Currently, the U.S. economy bleeds up to $70 billion annually from just local power outages.

There is no emergency response infrastructure to take care of an entire country in case of a wide scale outage.

Imagine the effects of a prolonged power outage, whether localized or on a large scale. The impact would extend far beyond just a short-term blackout. Consider everything today in our modern life that relies on electricity:

• Our internet-dependent world would fall silent.
• Hospitals would struggle to maintain critical care and might lose power to critical life-support machines.
• No electricity means no pumps for clean water or waste management.
• Modern cars with electronic systems could stall. Traffic lights would go dark.
• Planes might lose navigation systems and without communication, struggle with safe landing.
  • At any given time, there are between 8,000 and 13,000 airplanes in the air.

• ATMs and electronic payments could fail. Access to money and financial records might be lost.
• Water and Purification Plants might stop working, cutting off clean water.
• Refrigerators and freezers would stop, spoiling food and supplies.
• Personal medical equipment reliant on power will fail.
• Most jobs would be severely disrupted or halted if an EMP occurred, as our modern workforce heavily relies on electronic systems and infrastructure.
• Alarms, electronic locks, and surveillance cameras could fail.
• Vital information and records could be lost if not properly backed up.
• Police, fire, and ambulance services might lose their ability to coordinate and respond.
• Navigation and communication satellites could be damaged, affecting GPS and global communications.
• Factories for oil, food, medicine and things we need might end production and shut down.
• Trucking transportation would come to a halt.
• Everything from washing machines to smart home devices could become inoperable.
• Elevators and escalators could trap people or become unusable.
• Gas stations might not be able to pump fuel, affecting transportation and generators.

Nearly every sector would face significant challenges, leading to widespread unemployment and a sudden shift in job demands towards more manual and repair-oriented roles. Life would change dramatically.

As we continue to rely more heavily on electricity in our daily lives, ensuring a reliable and secure power supply isn't just a matter of convenience – it's essential for our society's daily life and progress and would set us back decades if our power went out for a long time.

YIKES.

So, are we truly wired for disaster? The answer lies in our country’s actions.

• Install protection devices to keep large transformers from burning out from effects caused by EMPs and CMEs.
• Implementing smart grid technologies for better monitoring and quick response is key.
• Developing smaller microgrids to create islands of resilience during broader outages.
• Enhancing cybersecurity measures to thwart digital attacks.
• Investing in renewable energy sources to diversify our power supply.

While the vulnerabilities of our power grid are concerning, there are steps we can take to improve the resilience of our own homes. Consider back-up power solutions like a generator or installing solar panels, batteries, and whole-house surge protectors to reduce your reliance on or protect yourself from the grid. Additionally, maintain a supply of emergency essentials like food, water, first-aid kits and other supplies in case of prolonged outages. By taking these proactive measures, we can better prepare ourselves and our families for potential impacts of power grid disruptions.